Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shennan Circuit Company Limited (002916.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$108.31 - $288.22$165.78
Multi-Stage$74.61 - $81.49$77.98
Blended Fair Value$121.88
Current Price$216.64
Upside-43.74%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.33%18.17%0.921.000.960.920.770.470.350.330.220.22
YoY Growth---7.83%4.30%4.31%19.39%63.13%34.55%5.82%49.80%1.50%25.53%
Dividend Yield--0.95%1.35%1.35%1.32%1.14%0.43%0.58%0.92%1.74%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,715.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)829.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,885.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)543.07339.42203.65
Cash Retained (M)1,885.861,885.861,885.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-543.07-339.42-203.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,342.791,546.441,682.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)589.57589.57589.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.282.622.85
LTM Dividend per Share1.411.411.41
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.282.622.85
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.684.034.26
WACC / Discount Rate9.09%9.09%9.09%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$108.31$165.78$288.22
Upside / Downside-50.01%-23.48%33.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,715.342,891.833,079.803,279.993,493.193,720.253,831.85
Payout Ratio30.55%42.44%54.33%66.22%78.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)829.481,227.251,673.222,171.982,728.513,348.223,544.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.09%9.09%9.09%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,114.431,125.001,135.56
Year 2 PV (M)1,379.741,406.021,432.55
Year 3 PV (M)1,626.381,673.071,720.64
Year 4 PV (M)1,855.301,926.652,000.04
Year 5 PV (M)2,067.402,167.262,270.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)35,943.3637,679.4439,481.96
Equity Value (M)43,986.6245,977.4348,041.68
Shares Outstanding (M)589.57589.57589.57
Fair Value$74.61$77.98$81.49
Upside / Downside-65.56%-64.00%-62.39%

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