Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guizhou Chanhen Chemical Corporation (002895.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$217.47 - $437.85$410.33
Multi-Stage$68.33 - $74.75$71.48
Blended Fair Value$240.91
Current Price$29.26
Upside723.33%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS35.74%9.85%1.140.830.340.070.250.250.130.150.180.11
YoY Growth--36.61%148.34%396.10%-72.66%0.17%92.76%-13.29%-17.29%63.68%-75.47%
Dividend Yield--4.81%4.41%1.28%0.32%2.28%2.27%0.90%0.62%1.76%1.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,248.86
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)720.54
(=) Cash Retained (M)528.32
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)249.77156.1193.66
Cash Retained (M)528.32528.32528.32
(-) Cash Required (M)-249.77-156.11-93.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)278.55372.21434.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)567.24567.24567.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.490.660.77
LTM Dividend per Share1.271.271.27
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.490.660.77
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.761.932.04
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$217.47$410.33$437.85
Upside / Downside643.25%1,302.35%1,396.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,248.861,330.031,416.491,508.561,606.611,711.041,762.37
Payout Ratio57.70%64.16%70.62%77.08%83.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)720.54853.301,000.281,162.771,342.151,539.941,630.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)794.79802.32809.85
Year 2 PV (M)867.80884.33901.01
Year 3 PV (M)939.58966.55994.04
Year 4 PV (M)1,010.161,049.011,088.97
Year 5 PV (M)1,079.541,131.681,185.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)34,068.7835,714.3237,422.83
Equity Value (M)38,760.6540,548.2142,402.52
Shares Outstanding (M)567.24567.24567.24
Fair Value$68.33$71.48$74.75
Upside / Downside133.53%144.30%155.47%

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