Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shenzhen JingQuanHua Electronics Co.,Ltd. (002885.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.43 - $19.52$10.23
Multi-Stage$4.24 - $4.64$4.44
Blended Fair Value$7.34
Current Price$18.63
Upside-60.62%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-14.30%43.67%0.040.090.040.020.070.080.030.020.030.03
YoY Growth---57.38%108.71%90.11%-67.45%-16.00%190.39%89.32%-54.69%21.70%2,572.61%
Dividend Yield--0.29%0.64%0.18%0.16%0.77%0.78%0.24%0.14%0.48%0.39%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)67.75
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)15.79
(=) Cash Retained (M)51.96
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.558.475.08
Cash Retained (M)51.9651.9651.96
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.55-8.47-5.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)38.4143.4946.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)271.85271.85271.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.160.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.160.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.200.220.23
WACC / Discount Rate8.77%8.77%8.77%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$6.43$10.23$19.52
Upside / Downside-65.47%-45.07%4.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)67.7572.1576.8481.8387.1592.8295.60
Payout Ratio23.30%36.64%49.98%63.32%76.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)15.7926.4438.4051.8266.8183.5488.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.77%8.77%8.77%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)24.0824.3124.53
Year 2 PV (M)31.8632.4633.07
Year 3 PV (M)39.1440.2741.41
Year 4 PV (M)45.9747.7349.55
Year 5 PV (M)52.3454.8757.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)960.461,006.851,055.02
Equity Value (M)1,153.851,206.491,261.09
Shares Outstanding (M)271.85271.85271.85
Fair Value$4.24$4.44$4.64
Upside / Downside-77.22%-76.18%-75.10%

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