Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co., Ltd. (002821.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$55.76 - $120.43$79.67
Multi-Stage$40.78 - $44.53$42.62
Blended Fair Value$61.14
Current Price$113.70
Upside-46.22%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS47.32%46.00%1.801.860.610.410.320.260.230.170.100.06
YoY Growth---3.40%203.69%50.32%25.88%24.98%14.89%36.16%67.08%56.68%54.92%
Dividend Yield--2.28%2.14%0.46%0.16%0.16%0.21%0.34%0.30%0.21%0.40%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,038.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)250.83
(=) Cash Retained (M)788.04
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)207.77129.8677.92
Cash Retained (M)788.04788.04788.04
(-) Cash Required (M)-207.77-129.86-77.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)580.26658.18710.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)357.38357.38357.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.621.841.99
LTM Dividend per Share0.700.700.70
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.621.841.99
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.332.542.69
WACC / Discount Rate9.90%9.90%9.90%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$55.76$79.67$120.43
Upside / Downside-50.96%-29.93%5.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,038.871,106.401,178.311,254.901,336.471,423.341,466.04
Payout Ratio24.14%37.32%50.49%63.66%76.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)250.83412.86594.89798.851,026.801,281.011,356.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.90%9.90%9.90%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)372.14375.67379.20
Year 2 PV (M)483.34492.54501.83
Year 3 PV (M)585.03601.82618.93
Year 4 PV (M)677.80703.87730.68
Year 5 PV (M)762.21799.02837.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,693.6012,258.4012,844.82
Equity Value (M)14,574.1115,231.3215,912.71
Shares Outstanding (M)357.38357.38357.38
Fair Value$40.78$42.62$44.53
Upside / Downside-64.13%-62.52%-60.84%

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