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Jiangsu Jiangyin Rural Commercial Bank Co.,LTD. (002807.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$48.35 - $174.49$153.85
Multi-Stage$21.97 - $24.04$22.99
Blended Fair Value$88.42
Current Price$4.45
Upside1,886.90%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS45.62%9.02%0.250.200.190.180.160.040.070.110.000.04
YoY Growth--19.88%6.56%7.16%14.37%318.17%-49.00%-30.84%0.00%-100.00%-61.36%
Dividend Yield--5.52%5.31%4.82%4.17%3.68%0.91%1.37%1.77%0.00%0.72%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,187.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)547.53
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,640.14
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)437.53273.46164.08
Cash Retained (M)1,640.141,640.141,640.14
(-) Cash Required (M)-437.53-273.46-164.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,202.611,366.691,476.07
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,493.402,493.402,493.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.480.550.59
LTM Dividend per Share0.220.220.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.480.550.59
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.700.770.81
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$48.35$153.85$174.49
Upside / Downside986.60%3,357.25%3,821.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,187.672,329.872,481.312,642.592,814.362,997.303,087.22
Payout Ratio25.03%38.02%51.02%64.01%77.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)547.53885.871,265.881,691.552,167.222,697.572,855.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)819.90827.67835.44
Year 2 PV (M)1,084.371,105.021,125.87
Year 3 PV (M)1,341.101,379.601,418.82
Year 4 PV (M)1,590.261,651.421,714.32
Year 5 PV (M)1,832.021,920.502,012.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)48,106.6950,430.2652,842.76
Equity Value (M)54,774.3357,314.4659,949.59
Shares Outstanding (M)2,493.402,493.402,493.40
Fair Value$21.97$22.99$24.04
Upside / Downside393.66%416.55%440.30%

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