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Definitive Analysis

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Muyuan Foods Co., Ltd. (002714.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$421.01 - $802.58$752.14
Multi-Stage$125.76 - $137.66$131.60
Blended Fair Value$441.87
Current Price$53.00
Upside733.71%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS132.42%62.05%1.290.730.241.000.220.020.150.150.030.00
YoY Growth--76.64%203.59%-75.98%352.76%1,062.82%-86.96%-0.14%338.73%1,135.99%-73.93%
Dividend Yield--3.32%1.63%0.49%1.76%0.31%0.04%0.50%1.38%0.52%0.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)22,179.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9,279.11
(=) Cash Retained (M)12,899.99
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,435.822,772.391,663.43
Cash Retained (M)12,899.9912,899.9912,899.99
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,435.82-2,772.39-1,663.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)8,464.1710,127.6011,236.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,495.865,495.865,495.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.541.842.04
LTM Dividend per Share1.691.691.69
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.541.842.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.233.533.73
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$421.01$752.14$802.58
Upside / Downside694.36%1,319.12%1,414.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)22,179.1023,620.7425,156.0926,791.2328,532.6630,387.2831,298.90
Payout Ratio41.84%51.47%61.10%70.73%80.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9,279.1112,157.5315,370.9518,950.7422,930.9727,348.5628,951.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)11,328.6511,436.0311,543.41
Year 2 PV (M)13,346.4613,600.6813,857.29
Year 3 PV (M)15,332.9115,773.0616,221.56
Year 4 PV (M)17,288.3517,953.2118,637.06
Year 5 PV (M)19,213.1320,141.1421,104.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)614,661.44644,349.81675,174.44
Equity Value (M)691,170.94723,253.92756,538.40
Shares Outstanding (M)5,495.865,495.865,495.86
Fair Value$125.76$131.60$137.66
Upside / Downside137.29%148.30%159.73%

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