Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Changying Xinzhi Technology Co.,Ltd. (002664.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.71 - $26.95$17.90
Multi-Stage$3.44 - $3.75$3.59
Blended Fair Value$10.74
Current Price$30.88
Upside-65.21%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS25.64%11.57%0.210.060.060.100.080.070.060.060.050.10
YoY Growth--260.99%0.23%-39.92%26.03%14.29%7.69%8.33%17.65%-49.00%36.36%
Dividend Yield--1.26%0.36%0.43%0.73%0.64%0.51%0.43%0.21%0.20%0.41%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)55.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)54.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)1.38
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.106.934.16
Cash Retained (M)1.381.381.38
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.10-6.93-4.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)-9.72-5.56-2.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)409.30409.30409.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.02-0.01-0.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.02-0.01-0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.110.120.13
WACC / Discount Rate7.21%7.21%7.21%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$6.71$17.90$26.95
Upside / Downside-78.28%-42.03%-12.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)55.4859.0862.9267.0171.3776.0178.29
Payout Ratio97.52%96.01%94.51%93.01%91.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)54.1056.7359.4762.3265.3068.4172.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.21%7.21%7.21%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)52.4252.9153.41
Year 2 PV (M)50.7751.7452.72
Year 3 PV (M)49.1750.5852.02
Year 4 PV (M)47.6149.4451.32
Year 5 PV (M)46.0848.3150.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,159.921,215.951,274.12
Equity Value (M)1,405.971,468.931,534.20
Shares Outstanding (M)409.30409.30409.30
Fair Value$3.44$3.59$3.75
Upside / Downside-88.88%-88.38%-87.86%

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