Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shenzhen Jieshun Science and Technology Industry Co.,Ltd. (002609.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.52 - $18.29$17.14
Multi-Stage$11.81 - $12.97$12.38
Blended Fair Value$14.76
Current Price$9.97
Upside48.06%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-2.14%27.99%0.130.030.030.100.030.150.420.120.090.02
YoY Growth--345.48%-0.01%-69.76%233.01%-79.99%-64.35%239.52%33.11%299.36%104.32%
Dividend Yield--1.44%0.31%0.27%1.10%0.33%1.50%4.94%0.86%0.58%0.14%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)59.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)49.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)10.81
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.997.504.50
Cash Retained (M)10.8110.8110.81
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.99-7.50-4.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)-1.183.326.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)644.63644.63644.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.070.080.09
WACC / Discount Rate-0.74%-0.74%-0.74%
Growth Rate4.28%5.28%6.28%
Fair Value$15.52$17.14$18.29
Upside / Downside55.69%71.92%83.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)59.9763.1466.4869.9973.6877.5879.90
Payout Ratio81.97%83.58%85.18%86.79%88.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)49.1652.7756.6260.7465.1369.8273.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-0.74%-0.74%-0.74%
Growth Rate4.28%5.28%6.28%
Year 1 PV (M)52.6653.1653.67
Year 2 PV (M)56.3857.4758.57
Year 3 PV (M)60.3562.1163.89
Year 4 PV (M)64.5867.0969.68
Year 5 PV (M)69.0872.4675.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,313.007,670.428,041.68
Equity Value (M)7,616.057,982.718,363.45
Shares Outstanding (M)644.63644.63644.63
Fair Value$11.81$12.38$12.97
Upside / Downside18.50%24.21%30.13%

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