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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangsu Asia-Pacific Light Alloy Technology Co., Ltd. (002540.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: AluminumSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$28.15 - $60.93$57.10
Multi-Stage$9.36 - $10.23$9.79
Blended Fair Value$33.45
Current Price$6.39
Upside423.41%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.01%21.87%0.450.380.090.060.230.450.060.050.040.01
YoY Growth--20.00%304.16%66.67%-75.17%-50.18%689.01%22.17%20.00%380.77%-87.00%
Dividend Yield--7.21%6.32%1.57%1.06%4.76%10.63%0.99%0.66%0.52%0.10%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)406.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)256.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)150.37
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)81.3950.8730.52
Cash Retained (M)150.37150.37150.37
(-) Cash Required (M)-81.39-50.87-30.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)68.9899.50119.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,328.291,328.291,328.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.070.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.070.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.250.270.28
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$28.15$57.10$60.93
Upside / Downside340.58%793.63%853.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)406.97433.42461.60491.60523.55557.58574.31
Payout Ratio63.05%68.44%73.83%79.22%84.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)256.60296.64340.80389.45442.98501.83531.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)276.13278.75281.36
Year 2 PV (M)295.30300.93306.61
Year 3 PV (M)314.13323.14332.33
Year 4 PV (M)332.60345.39358.55
Year 5 PV (M)350.74367.68385.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,861.2311,385.8311,930.51
Equity Value (M)12,430.1313,001.7313,594.63
Shares Outstanding (M)1,328.291,328.291,328.29
Fair Value$9.36$9.79$10.23
Upside / Downside46.45%53.18%60.17%

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