Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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GEM Co., Ltd. (002340.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Waste ManagementSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$40.47 - $47.68$44.69
Multi-Stage$11.39 - $12.48$11.93
Blended Fair Value$28.31
Current Price$8.42
Upside236.19%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS57.92%15.76%0.240.100.030.010.030.020.020.010.010.01
YoY Growth--136.31%273.07%93.33%-50.01%15.26%25.51%238.60%0.86%-51.62%-78.78%
Dividend Yield--3.67%1.60%0.36%0.17%0.33%0.52%0.37%0.08%0.09%0.29%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,225.26
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)674.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)550.31
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)245.05153.1691.89
Cash Retained (M)550.31550.31550.31
(-) Cash Required (M)-245.05-153.16-91.89
(=) Excess Retained (M)305.26397.15458.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,110.325,110.325,110.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.080.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.080.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.190.210.22
WACC / Discount Rate5.21%5.21%5.21%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$40.47$44.69$47.68
Upside / Downside380.66%430.71%466.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,225.261,304.911,389.731,480.061,576.261,678.721,729.08
Payout Ratio55.09%62.07%69.05%76.03%83.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)674.95809.94959.631,125.361,308.571,510.851,599.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.21%5.21%5.21%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)762.60769.83777.06
Year 2 PV (M)850.72866.93883.28
Year 3 PV (M)939.32966.29993.76
Year 4 PV (M)1,028.401,067.951,108.63
Year 5 PV (M)1,117.971,171.961,228.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)53,527.3056,112.6958,797.03
Equity Value (M)58,226.3260,955.6563,787.79
Shares Outstanding (M)5,110.325,110.325,110.32
Fair Value$11.39$11.93$12.48
Upside / Downside35.32%41.66%48.24%

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