Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sichuan Development Lomon Co., Ltd. (002312.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$27.87 - $56.11$52.58
Multi-Stage$8.81 - $9.64$9.22
Blended Fair Value$30.90
Current Price$10.83
Upside185.30%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS98.40%15.49%0.160.290.040.030.060.010.000.030.060.05
YoY Growth---44.72%568.14%25.95%-37.52%957.62%45.98%-87.78%-54.45%18.60%42.53%
Dividend Yield--1.35%4.13%0.42%0.33%0.71%0.12%0.09%0.43%0.95%0.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)544.86
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)367.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)177.11
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)108.9768.1140.86
Cash Retained (M)177.11177.11177.11
(-) Cash Required (M)-108.97-68.11-40.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)68.14109.00136.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,931.271,931.271,931.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.060.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.060.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.230.250.26
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$27.87$52.58$56.11
Upside / Downside157.37%385.51%418.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)544.86580.27617.99658.16700.94746.50768.90
Payout Ratio67.49%72.00%76.50%81.00%85.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)367.75417.77472.74533.10599.30671.85711.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)389.12392.81396.50
Year 2 PV (M)410.13417.94425.83
Year 3 PV (M)430.77443.14455.74
Year 4 PV (M)451.06468.41486.25
Year 5 PV (M)470.99493.74517.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,864.5015,582.4616,327.90
Equity Value (M)17,016.5817,798.5018,609.57
Shares Outstanding (M)1,931.271,931.271,931.27
Fair Value$8.81$9.22$9.64
Upside / Downside-18.64%-14.90%-11.03%

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