Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Lianhe Chemical Technology Co., Ltd. (002250.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.79 - $10.34$7.71
Multi-Stage$11.76 - $12.94$12.34
Blended Fair Value$10.02
Current Price$10.96
Upside-8.57%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.89%1.23%0.160.290.140.160.050.150.200.170.170.17
YoY Growth---44.83%114.82%-13.49%208.87%-65.32%-25.58%14.49%-0.94%0.08%21.88%
Dividend Yield--2.33%4.75%0.96%1.15%0.21%1.05%1.83%1.63%1.10%1.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)386.46
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)107.15
(=) Cash Retained (M)279.31
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)77.2948.3128.98
Cash Retained (M)279.31279.31279.31
(-) Cash Required (M)-77.29-48.31-28.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)202.02231.00250.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)905.41905.41905.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.220.260.28
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.220.260.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.340.370.39
WACC / Discount Rate5.88%5.88%5.88%
Growth Rate-0.02%0.98%1.98%
Fair Value$5.79$7.71$10.34
Upside / Downside-47.15%-29.69%-5.65%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)386.46390.26394.11397.99401.91405.86418.04
Payout Ratio27.73%40.18%52.64%65.09%77.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)107.15156.81207.44259.05311.66365.28386.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.88%5.88%5.88%
Growth Rate-0.02%0.98%1.98%
Year 1 PV (M)146.64148.10149.57
Year 2 PV (M)181.40185.04188.73
Year 3 PV (M)211.83218.25224.80
Year 4 PV (M)238.32248.00257.97
Year 5 PV (M)261.20274.52288.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,605.0310,095.0610,604.89
Equity Value (M)10,644.4111,168.9811,714.34
Shares Outstanding (M)905.41905.41905.41
Fair Value$11.76$12.34$12.94
Upside / Downside7.27%12.55%18.05%

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