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Guangdong Tapai Group Co., Ltd. (002233.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.88 - $3.89$3.39
Multi-Stage$9.71 - $10.75$10.22
Blended Fair Value$6.81
Current Price$8.76
Upside-22.31%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-7.63%11.88%0.500.120.630.440.880.740.730.180.180.23
YoY Growth--318.16%-81.04%44.36%-50.27%18.16%1.35%306.17%1.27%-21.69%39.99%
Dividend Yield--6.17%1.59%8.61%3.96%7.10%6.00%5.74%1.60%1.64%2.44%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)744.59
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)528.37
(=) Cash Retained (M)216.22
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)148.9293.0755.84
Cash Retained (M)216.22216.22216.22
(-) Cash Required (M)-148.92-93.07-55.84
(=) Excess Retained (M)67.30123.15160.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,174.191,174.191,174.19
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.100.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.450.450.45
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.100.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.510.550.59
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-9.63%-8.63%-7.63%
Fair Value$2.88$3.39$3.89
Upside / Downside-67.17%-61.26%-55.63%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)744.59680.36621.68568.05519.05474.28488.51
Payout Ratio70.96%74.77%78.58%82.38%86.19%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)528.37508.70488.49467.99447.38426.85451.87

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-9.63%-8.63%-7.63%
Year 1 PV (M)473.24478.48483.71
Year 2 PV (M)422.77432.18441.69
Year 3 PV (M)376.79389.44402.36
Year 4 PV (M)335.10350.18365.76
Year 5 PV (M)297.43314.26331.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,495.6410,032.7510,593.89
Equity Value (M)11,400.9711,997.2712,619.25
Shares Outstanding (M)1,174.191,174.191,174.19
Fair Value$9.71$10.22$10.75
Upside / Downside10.84%16.64%22.68%

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