Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Puyang Refractories Group Co., Ltd. (002225.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.26 - $2.16$1.65
Multi-Stage$1.44 - $1.58$1.51
Blended Fair Value$1.58
Current Price$5.89
Upside-73.16%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.43%0.02%0.090.080.080.070.100.070.050.060.070.07
YoY Growth--16.21%4.37%10.09%-28.04%35.58%54.22%-27.24%-13.66%7.49%-26.17%
Dividend Yield--1.78%2.38%1.87%1.81%2.09%1.82%0.80%1.42%1.22%0.96%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)107.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)50.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)56.92
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)21.4013.388.03
Cash Retained (M)56.9256.9256.92
(-) Cash Required (M)-21.40-13.38-8.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)35.5243.5448.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,081.471,081.471,081.47
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.080.090.09
WACC / Discount Rate9.06%9.06%9.06%
Growth Rate2.63%3.63%4.63%
Fair Value$1.26$1.65$2.16
Upside / Downside-78.56%-71.96%-63.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)107.02110.91114.93119.11123.43127.92131.76
Payout Ratio46.81%55.45%64.09%72.73%81.36%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)50.1061.5073.6686.62100.43115.13121.87

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.06%9.06%9.06%
Growth Rate2.63%3.63%4.63%
Year 1 PV (M)55.8456.3956.93
Year 2 PV (M)60.7461.9263.13
Year 3 PV (M)64.8666.7768.72
Year 4 PV (M)68.2870.9873.76
Year 5 PV (M)71.0774.6078.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,240.571,302.201,366.25
Equity Value (M)1,561.361,632.861,707.06
Shares Outstanding (M)1,081.471,081.471,081.47
Fair Value$1.44$1.51$1.58
Upside / Downside-75.49%-74.37%-73.20%

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