Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guangdong Guangzhou Daily Media Co., Ltd. (002181.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: PublishingSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.87 - $1.19$1.03
Multi-Stage$1.45 - $1.60$1.53
Blended Fair Value$1.28
Current Price$8.05
Upside-84.11%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS34.52%-3.78%0.070.040.050.070.090.010.010.000.000.02
YoY Growth--54.38%-12.17%-35.48%-14.49%488.76%110.78%0.00%-100.00%-94.56%-77.14%
Dividend Yield--1.22%0.95%0.83%1.81%2.07%0.33%0.11%0.00%0.02%0.23%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)184.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)177.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)36.8623.0413.82
Cash Retained (M)177.89177.89177.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-36.86-23.04-13.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)141.03154.86164.07
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,160.951,160.951,160.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.130.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.130.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.130.140.15
WACC / Discount Rate9.46%9.46%9.46%
Growth Rate-4.54%-3.54%-2.54%
Fair Value$0.87$1.03$1.19
Upside / Downside-89.24%-87.19%-85.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)184.31177.79171.50165.43159.57153.93158.54
Payout Ratio3.48%20.79%38.09%55.39%72.70%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6.4236.9565.3291.63116.00138.53146.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.46%9.46%9.46%
Growth Rate-4.54%-3.54%-2.54%
Year 1 PV (M)33.4133.7634.11
Year 2 PV (M)53.4054.5255.66
Year 3 PV (M)67.7269.8872.07
Year 4 PV (M)77.5280.8184.22
Year 5 PV (M)83.6988.1792.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,372.091,445.481,521.97
Equity Value (M)1,687.831,772.621,860.87
Shares Outstanding (M)1,160.951,160.951,160.95
Fair Value$1.45$1.53$1.60
Upside / Downside-81.94%-81.03%-80.09%

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