DDM Analysis: 002172.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.22 - $0.30	$0.26
Multi-Stage	$0.79 - $0.88	$0.84
Blended Fair Value	$0.55
Current Price	$4.06
Upside	-86.50%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-29.07%	-12.10%	0.04	0.04	0.05	0.12	0.13	0.20	0.11	0.07	0.00	0.10
YoY Growth	-	-	-5.53%	-28.33%	-56.17%	-7.73%	-34.44%	92.01%	51.70%	0.00%	-100.00%	-21.70%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.10%	1.19%	1.46%	3.24%	3.67%	6.46%	2.11%	1.27%	0.00%	0.83%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	42.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	19.64
(=) Cash Retained (M)	22.36

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	8.40	5.25	3.15
Cash Retained (M)	22.36	22.36	22.36
(-) Cash Required (M)	-8.40	-5.25	-3.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)	13.96	17.11	19.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	890.72	890.72	890.72
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.02	0.02	0.02
LTM Dividend per Share	0.02	0.02	0.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.02	0.02	0.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.04	0.04	0.04
WACC / Discount Rate	5.95%	5.95%	5.95%
Growth Rate	-9.59%	-8.59%	-7.59%
Fair Value	$0.22	$0.26	$0.30
Upside / Downside	-94.59%	-93.61%	-92.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	42.00	38.39	35.09	32.08	29.32	26.81	27.61
Payout Ratio	46.77%	55.41%	64.06%	72.71%	81.35%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	19.64	21.27	22.48	23.32	23.86	24.13	25.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	5.95%	5.95%	5.95%
Growth Rate	-9.59%	-8.59%	-7.59%
Year 1 PV (M)	19.86	20.08	20.30
Year 2 PV (M)	19.59	20.03	20.47
Year 3 PV (M)	18.97	19.61	20.26
Year 4 PV (M)	18.12	18.93	19.77
Year 5 PV (M)	17.10	18.07	19.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)	613.91	648.62	684.88
Equity Value (M)	707.55	745.34	784.76
Shares Outstanding (M)	890.72	890.72	890.72
Fair Value	$0.79	$0.84	$0.88
Upside / Downside	-80.43%	-79.39%	-78.30%

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Jiangsu Aoyang Health Industry Co.ltd. (002172.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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