DDM Analysis: 002039.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$6.03 - $8.43	$7.23
Multi-Stage	$18.45 - $20.39	$19.40
Blended Fair Value	$13.31
Current Price	$16.83
Upside	-20.91%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-6.60%	-7.01%	0.93	1.07	1.08	1.34	1.26	1.31	1.38	1.47	1.75	2.13
YoY Growth	-	-	-12.47%	-1.56%	-18.98%	6.17%	-4.07%	-5.10%	-6.14%	-15.70%	-18.01%	10.42%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.74%	6.77%	7.31%	10.60%	11.15%	13.33%	13.24%	13.64%	15.31%	16.61%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	445.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	231.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)	213.76

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	89.14	55.71	33.43
Cash Retained (M)	213.76	213.76	213.76
(-) Cash Required (M)	-89.14	-55.71	-33.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)	124.62	158.05	180.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	427.56	427.56	427.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.29	0.37	0.42
LTM Dividend per Share	0.54	0.54	0.54
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.29	0.37	0.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.83	0.91	0.96
WACC / Discount Rate	6.28%	6.28%	6.28%
Growth Rate	-6.63%	-5.63%	-4.63%
Fair Value	$6.03	$7.23	$8.43
Upside / Downside	-64.16%	-57.06%	-49.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	445.71	420.63	396.95	374.62	353.53	333.64	343.65
Payout Ratio	52.04%	59.63%	67.22%	74.82%	82.41%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	231.95	250.83	266.85	280.27	291.34	300.27	317.87

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.28%	6.28%	6.28%
Growth Rate	-6.63%	-5.63%	-4.63%
Year 1 PV (M)	233.50	236.00	238.50
Year 2 PV (M)	231.25	236.23	241.26
Year 3 PV (M)	226.10	233.44	240.94
Year 4 PV (M)	218.79	228.31	238.15
Year 5 PV (M)	209.92	221.40	233.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)	6,767.51	7,137.75	7,524.02
Equity Value (M)	7,887.07	8,293.14	8,716.26
Shares Outstanding (M)	427.56	427.56	427.56
Fair Value	$18.45	$19.40	$20.39
Upside / Downside	9.61%	15.25%	21.13%

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GuiZhou QianYuan Power Co., Ltd. (002039.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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