Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Eastcompeace Technology Co.,ltd (002017.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - InfrastructureSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.59 - $11.35$7.82
Multi-Stage$4.34 - $4.73$4.53
Blended Fair Value$6.18
Current Price$22.94
Upside-73.08%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS42.90%13.03%0.150.080.040.020.020.030.020.020.030.04
YoY Growth--96.09%90.23%69.20%-2.15%-3.50%24.16%-18.17%-2.49%-28.02%-19.88%
Dividend Yield--1.52%0.80%0.34%0.24%0.30%0.28%0.15%0.44%0.30%0.37%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)183.32
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)93.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)89.45
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)36.6622.9213.75
Cash Retained (M)89.4589.4589.45
(-) Cash Required (M)-36.66-22.92-13.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)52.7866.5375.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)580.29580.29580.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.110.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.110.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.250.280.29
WACC / Discount Rate10.27%10.27%10.27%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$5.59$7.82$11.35
Upside / Downside-75.62%-65.93%-50.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)183.32195.24207.93221.45235.84251.17258.70
Payout Ratio51.21%58.97%66.72%74.48%82.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)93.88115.13138.74164.94193.96226.05239.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.27%10.27%10.27%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)103.43104.41105.39
Year 2 PV (M)111.97114.11116.26
Year 3 PV (M)119.59123.02126.52
Year 4 PV (M)126.34131.20136.20
Year 5 PV (M)132.28138.67145.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,927.002,020.082,116.71
Equity Value (M)2,520.612,631.482,746.38
Shares Outstanding (M)580.29580.29580.29
Fair Value$4.34$4.53$4.73
Upside / Downside-81.06%-80.23%-79.37%

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