Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Han's Laser Technology Industry Group Co., Ltd. (002008.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$37.44 - $206.14$72.36
Multi-Stage$96.67 - $106.64$101.56
Blended Fair Value$86.96
Current Price$40.71
Upside113.61%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.72%1.55%0.320.290.490.270.260.310.290.280.260.25
YoY Growth--9.79%-39.70%83.89%2.44%-16.87%6.13%5.42%5.82%6.43%-10.71%
Dividend Yield--1.15%1.52%1.61%0.69%0.61%1.10%0.68%0.51%1.00%1.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,131.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)455.67
(=) Cash Retained (M)675.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)226.24141.4084.84
Cash Retained (M)675.51675.51675.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-226.24-141.40-84.84
(=) Excess Retained (M)449.28534.12590.67
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,030.911,030.911,030.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.440.520.57
LTM Dividend per Share0.440.440.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.440.520.57
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.880.961.01
WACC / Discount Rate1.89%1.89%1.89%
Growth Rate-0.45%0.55%1.55%
Fair Value$37.44$72.36$206.14
Upside / Downside-8.04%77.74%406.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,131.191,137.421,143.691,149.991,156.331,162.701,197.58
Payout Ratio40.28%50.23%60.17%70.11%80.06%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)455.67571.28688.15806.29925.721,046.431,107.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.89%1.89%1.89%
Growth Rate-0.45%0.55%1.55%
Year 1 PV (M)555.14560.71566.29
Year 2 PV (M)649.80662.92676.17
Year 3 PV (M)739.84762.36785.33
Year 4 PV (M)825.41859.08893.77
Year 5 PV (M)906.67953.131,001.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)95,981.23100,899.76106,017.90
Equity Value (M)99,658.09104,697.97109,940.94
Shares Outstanding (M)1,030.911,030.911,030.91
Fair Value$96.67$101.56$106.64
Upside / Downside137.46%149.47%161.96%

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