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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang NHU Company Ltd. (002001.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$191.65 - $466.39$437.08
Multi-Stage$67.86 - $74.28$71.01
Blended Fair Value$254.04
Current Price$23.83
Upside966.06%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.60%15.15%0.540.600.690.600.450.560.310.230.090.14
YoY Growth---9.27%-14.04%16.64%32.95%-19.77%79.23%33.77%165.55%-35.80%3.39%
Dividend Yield--2.42%3.49%3.87%2.26%1.69%2.95%2.34%1.71%1.08%1.58%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7,199.75
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,357.04
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,842.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,439.95899.97539.98
Cash Retained (M)4,842.714,842.714,842.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,439.95-899.97-539.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,402.763,942.744,302.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,070.073,070.073,070.07
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.111.281.40
LTM Dividend per Share0.770.770.77
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.111.281.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.882.052.17
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$191.65$437.08$466.39
Upside / Downside704.24%1,734.14%1,857.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7,199.757,667.738,166.148,696.939,262.239,864.2810,160.21
Payout Ratio32.74%44.19%55.64%67.10%78.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,357.043,388.394,543.855,835.227,275.268,877.859,398.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,150.743,180.603,210.47
Year 2 PV (M)3,928.834,003.674,079.21
Year 3 PV (M)4,691.554,826.224,963.45
Year 4 PV (M)5,439.105,648.275,863.42
Year 5 PV (M)6,171.726,469.816,779.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)184,938.58193,871.18203,145.66
Equity Value (M)208,320.52217,999.76228,041.53
Shares Outstanding (M)3,070.073,070.073,070.07
Fair Value$67.86$71.01$74.28
Upside / Downside184.75%197.98%211.70%

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