Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Chongqing Changjiang River Moulding Material (Group) Co., Ltd. (001296.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$162.98 - $192.02$179.95
Multi-Stage$40.37 - $44.25$42.27
Blended Fair Value$111.11
Current Price$22.80
Upside387.33%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201620152014
DPS146.47%7.91%0.310.080.230.010.000.000.010.010.000.30
YoY Growth--276.80%-63.87%3,326.02%87.40%4.07%-46.84%-5.79%299.96%-99.44%109.28%
Dividend Yield--1.79%0.49%1.63%0.04%0.02%0.00%0.00%0.03%0.01%1.50%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)142.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)31.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)110.39
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)28.4517.7810.67
Cash Retained (M)110.39110.39110.39
(-) Cash Required (M)-28.45-17.78-10.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)81.9492.6199.72
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)147.34147.34147.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.560.630.68
LTM Dividend per Share0.220.220.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.560.630.68
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.770.840.89
WACC / Discount Rate5.47%5.47%5.47%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$162.98$179.95$192.02
Upside / Downside614.84%689.27%742.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)142.27151.51161.36171.85183.02194.92200.76
Payout Ratio22.41%35.92%49.44%62.96%76.48%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)31.8854.4379.78108.20139.98175.42185.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.47%5.47%5.47%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)51.1251.6152.09
Year 2 PV (M)70.3871.7273.08
Year 3 PV (M)89.6592.2394.85
Year 4 PV (M)108.94113.13117.44
Year 5 PV (M)128.23134.42140.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,499.455,765.076,040.86
Equity Value (M)5,947.786,228.186,519.18
Shares Outstanding (M)147.34147.34147.34
Fair Value$40.37$42.27$44.25
Upside / Downside77.05%85.40%94.06%

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