Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Xiangtan Yongda Mach Mnfg Co (001239.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$21.83 - $87.76$58.21
Multi-Stage$10.53 - $11.52$11.02
Blended Fair Value$34.61
Current Price$16.88
Upside105.06%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS14.15%0.00%0.060.060.070.100.040.030.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.92%-13.24%-30.02%140.88%31.32%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.41%0.37%0.58%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)105.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)22.54
(=) Cash Retained (M)83.33
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)21.1713.237.94
Cash Retained (M)83.3383.3383.33
(-) Cash Required (M)-21.17-13.23-7.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)62.1670.1075.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)239.93239.93239.93
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.260.290.31
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.260.290.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.350.390.41
WACC / Discount Rate7.21%7.21%7.21%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$21.83$58.21$87.76
Upside / Downside29.30%244.85%419.89%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)105.87112.75120.08127.89136.20145.05149.41
Payout Ratio21.29%35.03%48.77%62.52%76.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)22.5439.5058.5779.95103.86130.55138.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.21%7.21%7.21%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)36.5036.8437.19
Year 2 PV (M)50.0150.9651.92
Year 3 PV (M)63.0864.8966.73
Year 4 PV (M)75.7278.6381.62
Year 5 PV (M)87.9492.1996.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,213.142,320.042,431.02
Equity Value (M)2,526.382,643.542,765.09
Shares Outstanding (M)239.93239.93239.93
Fair Value$10.53$11.02$11.52
Upside / Downside-37.62%-34.73%-31.73%

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