Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Wenzhou Yuanfei pet toy products Co., Ltd. (001222.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.43 - $37.04$24.77
Multi-Stage$12.68 - $13.85$13.25
Blended Fair Value$19.01
Current Price$23.13
Upside-17.82%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS111.87%0.00%0.200.290.000.000.000.000.030.000.000.00
YoY Growth---30.06%0.00%-100.00%-37.84%-42.52%-82.99%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.32%2.22%0.00%0.01%0.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)174.76
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)26.74
(=) Cash Retained (M)148.02
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)34.9521.8413.11
Cash Retained (M)148.02148.02148.02
(-) Cash Required (M)-34.95-21.84-13.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)113.06126.17134.91
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)188.40188.40188.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.600.670.72
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.600.670.72
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.740.810.86
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$17.43$24.77$37.04
Upside / Downside-24.62%7.07%60.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)174.76186.12198.21211.10224.82239.43246.61
Payout Ratio15.30%30.24%45.18%60.12%75.06%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)26.7456.2889.56126.91168.75215.49228.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)50.6951.1751.65
Year 2 PV (M)72.6474.0375.42
Year 3 PV (M)92.7295.3898.09
Year 4 PV (M)111.03115.30119.69
Year 5 PV (M)127.69133.86140.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,933.782,027.182,124.16
Equity Value (M)2,388.552,496.912,609.28
Shares Outstanding (M)188.40188.40188.40
Fair Value$12.68$13.25$13.85
Upside / Downside-45.19%-42.70%-40.12%

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