Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Shanjin International Gold Co., Ltd. (000975.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Other Precious MetalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.57 - $25.63$19.27
Multi-Stage$11.79 - $12.84$12.31
Blended Fair Value$15.79
Current Price$22.83
Upside-30.84%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.17%13.84%0.290.290.270.300.150.150.130.000.080.08
YoY Growth---1.38%8.87%-11.33%97.49%3.16%16.82%7,328.49%-97.82%-5.11%5.00%
Dividend Yield--1.49%1.56%2.02%3.23%1.71%1.43%1.55%0.02%1.05%1.28%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,905.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,039.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,865.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)581.06363.16217.90
Cash Retained (M)1,865.441,865.441,865.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-581.06-363.16-217.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,284.381,502.281,647.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,776.182,776.182,776.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.460.540.59
LTM Dividend per Share0.370.370.37
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.460.540.59
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.840.920.97
WACC / Discount Rate11.56%11.56%11.56%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$14.57$19.27$25.63
Upside / Downside-36.16%-15.59%12.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,905.303,094.153,295.273,509.463,737.573,980.524,099.93
Payout Ratio35.79%46.63%57.48%68.32%79.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,039.861,442.911,893.962,397.552,958.603,582.463,792.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate11.56%11.56%11.56%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,281.241,293.391,305.53
Year 2 PV (M)1,493.331,521.771,550.48
Year 3 PV (M)1,678.591,726.781,775.88
Year 4 PV (M)1,839.321,910.051,982.81
Year 5 PV (M)1,977.632,073.152,172.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)24,455.8025,637.0326,863.46
Equity Value (M)32,725.9134,162.1635,650.48
Shares Outstanding (M)2,776.182,776.182,776.18
Fair Value$11.79$12.31$12.84
Upside / Downside-48.37%-46.10%-43.75%

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