Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Ningxia Orient Tantalum Industry Co., Ltd. (000962.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.89 - $25.07$15.91
Multi-Stage$7.80 - $8.51$8.15
Blended Fair Value$12.03
Current Price$24.40
Upside-50.71%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.35%-12.17%0.060.000.010.000.010.030.050.070.100.15
YoY Growth--1,193.79%-22.43%34.90%-68.70%-57.77%-41.37%-22.96%-33.56%-32.65%-24.46%
Dividend Yield--0.35%0.04%0.05%0.04%0.16%0.51%0.62%0.95%0.92%1.64%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)265.41
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)66.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)198.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)53.0833.1819.91
Cash Retained (M)198.98198.98198.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-53.08-33.18-19.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)145.89165.80179.07
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)502.33502.33502.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.290.330.36
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.290.330.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.420.460.49
WACC / Discount Rate9.60%9.60%9.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$10.89$15.91$25.07
Upside / Downside-55.38%-34.81%2.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)265.41282.66301.03320.60341.44363.63374.54
Payout Ratio25.03%38.02%51.02%64.01%77.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)66.43107.48153.58205.22262.93327.27346.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.60%9.60%9.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)97.1598.0798.99
Year 2 PV (M)125.48127.87130.28
Year 3 PV (M)151.55155.90160.33
Year 4 PV (M)175.50182.25189.19
Year 5 PV (M)197.45206.99216.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,169.133,322.203,481.13
Equity Value (M)3,916.264,093.274,276.81
Shares Outstanding (M)502.33502.33502.33
Fair Value$7.80$8.15$8.51
Upside / Downside-68.05%-66.60%-65.11%

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