Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co., Ltd. (000887.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$194.55 - $229.22$214.81
Multi-Stage$157.90 - $173.31$165.46
Blended Fair Value$190.13
Current Price$24.86
Upside664.82%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.56%27.40%0.380.200.200.190.190.190.280.090.070.03
YoY Growth--88.50%0.00%8.69%0.00%-3.69%-32.08%200.01%27.03%117.79%1.27%
Dividend Yield--1.98%1.69%1.58%1.23%1.86%2.07%2.22%0.53%0.30%0.16%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,506.94
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)342.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,164.22
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)301.39188.37113.02
Cash Retained (M)1,164.221,164.221,164.22
(-) Cash Required (M)-301.39-188.37-113.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)862.83975.851,051.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,307.461,307.461,307.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.660.750.80
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.660.750.80
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.921.011.07
WACC / Discount Rate-1.31%-1.31%-1.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$194.55$214.81$229.22
Upside / Downside682.60%764.08%822.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,506.941,604.891,709.211,820.311,938.632,064.642,126.58
Payout Ratio22.74%36.19%49.65%63.10%76.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)342.73580.88848.551,148.571,484.001,858.181,967.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-1.31%-1.31%-1.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)583.07588.60594.13
Year 2 PV (M)854.96871.24887.68
Year 3 PV (M)1,161.591,194.941,228.92
Year 4 PV (M)1,506.481,564.421,624.01
Year 5 PV (M)1,893.441,984.892,079.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)200,441.33210,122.72220,174.64
Equity Value (M)206,440.87216,326.81226,589.21
Shares Outstanding (M)1,307.461,307.461,307.46
Fair Value$157.90$165.46$173.31
Upside / Downside535.14%565.55%597.13%

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