Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Innuovo Technology Co., Ltd. (000795.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.93 - $12.39$7.42
Multi-Stage$3.59 - $3.91$3.75
Blended Fair Value$5.58
Current Price$10.73
Upside-47.99%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS33.07%-4.84%0.040.120.020.010.030.010.000.000.010.03
YoY Growth---64.80%436.59%118.68%-65.33%191.40%124.14%37.22%-68.08%-63.55%-59.23%
Dividend Yield--0.40%2.08%0.33%0.15%0.56%0.20%0.09%0.06%0.15%0.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)241.93
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)149.53
(=) Cash Retained (M)92.40
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)48.3930.2418.14
Cash Retained (M)92.4092.4092.40
(-) Cash Required (M)-48.39-30.24-18.14
(=) Excess Retained (M)44.0162.1674.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,098.591,098.591,098.59
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.060.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.060.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.180.190.20
WACC / Discount Rate9.27%9.27%9.27%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$4.93$7.42$12.39
Upside / Downside-54.02%-30.88%15.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)241.93257.66274.40292.24311.23331.46341.41
Payout Ratio61.81%67.45%73.09%78.72%84.36%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)149.53173.78200.55230.06262.56298.32315.80

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.27%9.27%9.27%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)157.55159.04160.53
Year 2 PV (M)164.83167.97171.14
Year 3 PV (M)171.43176.35181.36
Year 4 PV (M)177.37184.19191.21
Year 5 PV (M)182.70191.53200.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,086.153,235.213,389.98
Equity Value (M)3,940.044,114.304,294.92
Shares Outstanding (M)1,098.591,098.591,098.59
Fair Value$3.59$3.75$3.91
Upside / Downside-66.58%-65.10%-63.56%

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