Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

China Nonferrous Metal Industry's Foreign Engineering and Construction Co.,Ltd. (000758.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.20 - $1.61$1.41
Multi-Stage$2.96 - $3.27$3.11
Blended Fair Value$2.26
Current Price$6.78
Upside-66.68%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-14.79%-9.91%0.060.090.090.120.140.140.220.260.220.21
YoY Growth---33.99%6.52%-27.08%-12.28%-0.10%-37.09%-15.92%19.06%2.98%20.82%
Dividend Yield--1.22%1.91%1.59%2.58%2.58%3.04%4.22%4.46%2.46%3.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)546.53
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)181.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)365.23
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)109.3168.3240.99
Cash Retained (M)365.23365.23365.23
(-) Cash Required (M)-109.31-68.32-40.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)255.92296.91324.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,013.202,013.202,013.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.150.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.150.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.220.240.25
WACC / Discount Rate7.64%7.64%7.64%
Growth Rate-8.90%-7.90%-6.90%
Fair Value$1.20$1.41$1.61
Upside / Downside-82.36%-79.23%-76.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)546.53503.37463.62427.00393.28362.22373.09
Payout Ratio33.17%44.54%55.90%67.27%78.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)181.30224.20259.18287.24309.26326.00345.11

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.64%7.64%7.64%
Growth Rate-8.90%-7.90%-6.90%
Year 1 PV (M)206.02208.28210.54
Year 2 PV (M)218.85223.69228.57
Year 3 PV (M)222.88230.30237.89
Year 4 PV (M)220.51230.35240.52
Year 5 PV (M)213.60225.58238.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,870.845,144.105,429.49
Equity Value (M)5,952.706,262.306,585.10
Shares Outstanding (M)2,013.202,013.202,013.20
Fair Value$2.96$3.11$3.27
Upside / Downside-56.39%-54.12%-51.76%

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