Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Zhongxing Shenyang Commercial Building Group Co.,Ltd (000715.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$35.04 - $41.39$38.74
Multi-Stage$295.45 - $328.94$311.84
Blended Fair Value$175.29
Current Price$5.56
Upside3,052.64%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.97%0.85%0.040.000.040.040.070.050.050.040.040.04
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%0.00%-37.50%49.00%0.00%14.29%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.84%0.00%0.71%1.08%1.99%1.00%0.98%0.92%0.56%0.55%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)113.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)41.57
(=) Cash Retained (M)71.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)22.7114.198.52
Cash Retained (M)71.9871.9871.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-22.71-14.19-8.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)49.2757.7963.47
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)476.23476.23476.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.120.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.120.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.190.210.22
WACC / Discount Rate-44.81%-44.81%-44.81%
Growth Rate-8.16%-7.16%-6.16%
Fair Value$35.04$38.74$41.39
Upside / Downside530.15%596.74%644.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)113.55105.4297.8790.8684.3578.3180.66
Payout Ratio36.61%47.29%57.97%68.64%79.32%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)41.5749.8556.7362.3766.9170.4874.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-44.81%-44.81%-44.81%
Growth Rate-8.16%-7.16%-6.16%
Year 1 PV (M)89.3690.3391.31
Year 2 PV (M)182.28186.28190.31
Year 3 PV (M)359.23371.09383.21
Year 4 PV (M)690.79721.37752.96
Year 5 PV (M)1,304.321,376.891,452.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)138,076.44145,759.45153,780.71
Equity Value (M)140,702.42148,505.41156,651.16
Shares Outstanding (M)476.23476.23476.23
Fair Value$295.45$311.84$328.94
Upside / Downside5,213.85%5,508.54%5,816.18%

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