Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Dongfang Electronics Co., Ltd. (000682.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.36 - $25.58$16.47
Multi-Stage$8.01 - $8.76$8.37
Blended Fair Value$12.42
Current Price$12.03
Upside3.27%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS106.03%18.51%0.120.080.060.000.040.000.010.000.000.01
YoY Growth--54.52%22.43%2,217.65%-93.50%1,203.20%-39.24%142.97%-8.24%-61.78%-71.57%
Dividend Yield--1.19%0.81%0.75%0.04%0.87%0.07%0.08%0.05%0.05%0.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)757.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)49.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)708.04
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)151.5594.7256.83
Cash Retained (M)708.04708.04708.04
(-) Cash Required (M)-151.55-94.72-56.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)556.49613.32651.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,340.641,340.641,340.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.420.460.49
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.420.460.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.450.490.52
WACC / Discount Rate9.70%9.70%9.70%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$11.36$16.47$25.58
Upside / Downside-5.53%36.92%112.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)757.74806.99859.44915.31974.801,038.161,069.31
Payout Ratio6.56%23.25%39.94%56.62%73.31%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)49.70187.60343.22518.28714.65934.35989.11

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.70%9.70%9.70%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)169.41171.02172.62
Year 2 PV (M)279.89285.22290.60
Year 3 PV (M)381.67392.62403.79
Year 4 PV (M)475.24493.52512.32
Year 5 PV (M)561.10588.20616.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,868.709,297.079,741.82
Equity Value (M)10,736.0111,227.6411,737.49
Shares Outstanding (M)1,340.641,340.641,340.64
Fair Value$8.01$8.37$8.76
Upside / Downside-33.43%-30.38%-27.22%

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