DDM Analysis: 000661.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$48.57 - $111.05	$70.78
Multi-Stage	$33.85 - $37.02	$35.41
Blended Fair Value	$53.09
Current Price	$130.00
Upside	-59.16%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	72.97%	41.01%	4.55	1.08	1.22	0.76	0.54	0.29	0.34	0.39	0.26	0.14
YoY Growth	-	-	319.75%	-10.88%	60.08%	42.02%	82.04%	-13.74%	-12.35%	50.87%	87.25%	-6.02%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.65%	0.88%	0.75%	0.45%	0.12%	0.11%	0.21%	0.42%	0.47%	0.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	959.05
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	20.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)	938.60

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	191.81	119.88	71.93
Cash Retained (M)	938.60	938.60	938.60
(-) Cash Required (M)	-191.81	-119.88	-71.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)	746.79	818.72	866.67
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	403.94	403.94	403.94
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.85	2.03	2.15
LTM Dividend per Share	0.05	0.05	0.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.85	2.03	2.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.90	2.08	2.20
WACC / Discount Rate	9.63%	9.63%	9.63%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$48.57	$70.78	$111.05
Upside / Downside	-62.64%	-45.55%	-14.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	959.05	1,021.39	1,087.78	1,158.49	1,233.79	1,313.99	1,353.41
Payout Ratio	2.13%	19.71%	37.28%	54.85%	72.43%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	20.45	201.27	405.52	635.46	893.59	1,182.59	1,251.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.63%	9.63%	9.63%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	181.88	183.60	185.32
Year 2 PV (M)	331.12	337.43	343.80
Year 3 PV (M)	468.88	482.34	496.05
Year 4 PV (M)	595.80	618.71	642.27
Year 5 PV (M)	712.49	746.91	782.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)	11,383.44	11,933.26	12,504.13
Equity Value (M)	13,673.61	14,302.25	14,954.22
Shares Outstanding (M)	403.94	403.94	403.94
Fair Value	$33.85	$35.41	$37.02
Upside / Downside	-73.96%	-72.76%	-71.52%

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Changchun High-Tech Industries (Group) Inc. (000661.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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