Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co.,Ltd. (000630.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CopperSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.31 - $28.23$26.46
Multi-Stage$3.98 - $4.35$4.16
Blended Fair Value$15.31
Current Price$5.36
Upside185.66%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.45%5.09%0.130.110.150.090.070.090.090.050.060.10
YoY Growth--16.47%-23.30%68.61%32.71%-24.95%3.71%61.75%-16.75%-36.04%22.65%
Dividend Yield--3.87%2.87%4.62%2.37%2.49%4.45%3.12%2.01%2.00%3.53%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,849.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,703.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)145.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)369.84231.15138.69
Cash Retained (M)145.25145.25145.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-369.84-231.15-138.69
(=) Excess Retained (M)-224.59-85.906.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)13,025.7713,025.7713,025.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.02-0.010.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.02-0.010.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.110.120.13
WACC / Discount Rate6.79%6.79%6.79%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$9.31$26.46$28.23
Upside / Downside73.74%393.63%426.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,849.191,969.392,097.402,233.732,378.932,533.562,609.56
Payout Ratio92.15%91.72%91.29%90.86%90.43%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,703.951,806.261,914.662,029.532,151.242,280.202,413.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.79%6.79%6.79%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,675.581,691.461,707.34
Year 2 PV (M)1,647.651,679.031,710.71
Year 3 PV (M)1,620.141,666.651,714.04
Year 4 PV (M)1,593.061,654.331,717.34
Year 5 PV (M)1,566.401,642.061,720.61
PV of Terminal Value (M)43,790.9445,906.0648,102.13
Equity Value (M)51,893.7754,239.5956,672.18
Shares Outstanding (M)13,025.7713,025.7713,025.77
Fair Value$3.98$4.16$4.35
Upside / Downside-25.67%-22.31%-18.83%

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