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Definitive Analysis

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Northeast Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd. (000597.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.46 - $28.54$12.60
Multi-Stage$7.01 - $7.68$7.34
Blended Fair Value$9.97
Current Price$5.33
Upside87.04%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.74%0.32%0.140.150.080.110.090.090.120.110.110.13
YoY Growth---6.21%100.79%-33.87%32.46%-7.84%-18.59%4.57%1.82%-15.09%-7.72%
Dividend Yield--2.83%3.15%1.28%1.80%1.89%1.88%1.91%2.42%1.85%2.76%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)374.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)202.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)171.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)74.9246.8228.09
Cash Retained (M)171.71171.71171.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-74.92-46.82-28.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)96.79124.88143.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,440.481,440.481,440.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.090.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.090.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.210.230.24
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate3.64%4.64%5.64%
Fair Value$7.46$12.60$28.54
Upside / Downside39.96%136.32%435.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)374.58391.97410.17429.21449.14469.99484.09
Payout Ratio54.16%61.33%68.50%75.66%82.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)202.88240.39280.95324.76372.03422.99447.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate3.64%4.64%5.64%
Year 1 PV (M)223.49225.65227.81
Year 2 PV (M)242.84247.55252.31
Year 3 PV (M)260.98268.60276.38
Year 4 PV (M)277.95288.83300.03
Year 5 PV (M)293.81308.26323.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,804.019,237.019,686.89
Equity Value (M)10,103.0810,575.9111,066.69
Shares Outstanding (M)1,440.481,440.481,440.48
Fair Value$7.01$7.34$7.68
Upside / Downside31.59%37.75%44.14%

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