Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Guangdong Guanghong Holdings Co.,Ltd. (000529.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.68 - $2.60$2.11
Multi-Stage$4.06 - $4.46$4.26
Blended Fair Value$3.18
Current Price$5.95
Upside-46.53%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS27.96%0.00%0.240.150.150.110.100.070.070.040.000.00
YoY Growth--60.08%0.00%36.36%10.00%42.86%2.94%51.11%89,348.52%-94.91%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.09%2.53%1.84%1.58%1.61%1.01%1.02%0.71%0.00%0.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)103.83
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)102.23
(=) Cash Retained (M)1.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20.7712.987.79
Cash Retained (M)1.601.601.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-20.77-12.98-7.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)-19.16-11.38-6.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)584.45584.45584.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.03-0.02-0.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.03-0.02-0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.160.16
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.68$2.11$2.60
Upside / Downside-71.83%-64.61%-56.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)103.83102.79101.77100.7599.7498.74101.71
Payout Ratio98.46%96.76%95.07%93.38%91.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)102.2399.4796.7594.0891.4588.8794.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)92.6293.5694.51
Year 2 PV (M)83.8985.6187.35
Year 3 PV (M)75.9678.3080.70
Year 4 PV (M)68.7571.6074.54
Year 5 PV (M)62.2165.4568.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,990.142,093.772,201.67
Equity Value (M)2,373.562,488.292,607.59
Shares Outstanding (M)584.45584.45584.45
Fair Value$4.06$4.26$4.46
Upside / Downside-31.74%-28.45%-25.01%

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