DDM Analysis: 000523.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.77 - $1.00	$0.89
Multi-Stage	$1.76 - $1.97	$1.86
Blended Fair Value	$1.38
Current Price	$3.16
Upside	-56.35%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-43.28%	-13.88%	0.00	0.01	0.02	0.06	0.08	0.07	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.03
YoY Growth	-	-	-49.22%	-46.69%	-74.78%	-27.96%	19.37%	55.89%	87.46%	-1.93%	-9.71%	47.82%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.12%	0.25%	0.45%	1.77%	2.82%	1.05%	0.77%	0.38%	0.26%	0.30%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	508.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	7.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)	500.65

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	101.60	63.50	38.10
Cash Retained (M)	500.65	500.65	500.65
(-) Cash Required (M)	-101.60	-63.50	-38.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)	399.04	437.15	462.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,832.86	1,832.86	1,832.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.22	0.24	0.25
LTM Dividend per Share	0.00	0.00	0.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.22	0.24	0.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.22	0.24	0.26
WACC / Discount Rate	8.19%	8.19%	8.19%
Growth Rate	-15.88%	-14.88%	-13.88%
Fair Value	$0.77	$0.89	$1.00
Upside / Downside	-75.47%	-71.68%	-68.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	508.02	432.45	368.12	313.36	266.75	227.07	233.88
Payout Ratio	1.45%	19.16%	36.87%	54.58%	72.29%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	7.38	82.86	135.73	171.04	192.83	204.36	216.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.19%	8.19%	8.19%
Growth Rate	-15.88%	-14.88%	-13.88%
Year 1 PV (M)	75.69	76.59	77.49
Year 2 PV (M)	113.24	115.95	118.69
Year 3 PV (M)	130.34	135.04	139.86
Year 4 PV (M)	134.23	140.72	147.45
Year 5 PV (M)	129.93	137.84	146.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,648.27	2,809.46	2,978.40
Equity Value (M)	3,231.71	3,415.61	3,608.03
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,832.86	1,832.86	1,832.86
Fair Value	$1.76	$1.86	$1.97
Upside / Downside	-44.20%	-41.03%	-37.71%

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Hongmian Zhihui Science and Technology Innovation Co.,Ltd.Guangzhou (000523.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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