Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shenzhen Airport Co., Ltd. (000089.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Airlines, Airports & Air ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.05 - $29.53$13.46
Multi-Stage$6.79 - $7.42$7.10
Blended Fair Value$10.28
Current Price$6.95
Upside47.92%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS15.95%13.32%0.170.070.110.000.080.080.100.080.050.05
YoY Growth--129.18%-31.24%3,343.47%-96.08%-1.52%-15.53%15.79%63.17%-3.51%8.20%
Dividend Yield--2.57%1.09%1.49%0.05%0.90%1.07%0.97%0.99%0.58%0.64%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)584.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)383.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)201.17
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)116.8573.0343.82
Cash Retained (M)201.17201.17201.17
(-) Cash Required (M)-116.85-73.03-43.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)84.32128.14157.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,051.072,051.072,051.07
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.060.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.060.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.230.250.26
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate4.17%5.17%6.17%
Fair Value$8.05$13.46$29.53
Upside / Downside15.89%93.68%324.89%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)584.27614.45646.19679.56714.66751.58774.12
Payout Ratio65.57%70.46%75.34%80.23%85.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)383.10432.91486.85545.20608.28676.42716.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate4.17%5.17%6.17%
Year 1 PV (M)400.32404.17408.01
Year 2 PV (M)416.31424.34432.45
Year 3 PV (M)431.11443.64456.42
Year 4 PV (M)444.78462.11479.94
Year 5 PV (M)457.37479.75503.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,773.6012,349.7012,948.13
Equity Value (M)13,923.4914,563.7015,227.94
Shares Outstanding (M)2,051.072,051.072,051.07
Fair Value$6.79$7.10$7.42
Upside / Downside-2.33%2.17%6.83%

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