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Winpak Ltd. (WPK.TO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$39.48 - $82.05$55.64
Multi-Stage$60.82 - $66.63$63.67
Blended Fair Value$59.65
Current Price$32.79
Upside81.93%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.51%-20.50%0.110.090.102.650.090.090.100.100.091.28
YoY Growth--14.47%-4.13%-96.36%2,771.46%-1.40%-3.40%1.37%1.89%-92.68%22.00%
Dividend Yield--0.39%0.31%0.31%8.65%0.26%0.30%0.30%0.26%0.24%3.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)139.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)139.11
(=) Cash Retained (M)0.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.9817.4910.49
Cash Retained (M)0.780.780.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.98-17.49-10.49
(=) Excess Retained (M)-27.20-16.71-9.72
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)62.3862.3862.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.44-0.27-0.16
LTM Dividend per Share2.232.232.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.44-0.27-0.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.791.962.07
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate1.70%2.70%3.70%
Fair Value$39.48$55.64$82.05
Upside / Downside20.39%69.69%150.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)139.89143.66147.53151.51155.59159.78164.58
Payout Ratio99.45%97.56%95.67%93.78%91.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)139.11140.15141.14142.08142.97143.81152.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate1.70%2.70%3.70%
Year 1 PV (M)130.54131.82133.11
Year 2 PV (M)122.45124.87127.31
Year 3 PV (M)114.81118.23121.72
Year 4 PV (M)107.61111.90116.33
Year 5 PV (M)100.81105.87111.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,217.633,378.973,546.72
Equity Value (M)3,793.843,971.664,156.30
Shares Outstanding (M)62.3862.3862.38
Fair Value$60.82$63.67$66.63
Upside / Downside85.48%94.17%103.20%

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