Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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PT Surya Toto Indonesia Tbk (TOTO.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$553.04 - $1,041.38$751.28
Multi-Stage$824.51 - $905.16$864.06
Blended Fair Value$807.67
Current Price$224.00
Upside260.57%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.89%3.39%20.0418.1916.229.542.8610.4617.107.6111.4011.17
YoY Growth--10.21%12.12%70.05%233.76%-72.68%-38.82%124.82%-33.26%2.07%-22.26%
Dividend Yield--9.37%8.34%6.14%4.22%1.35%5.23%4.30%2.03%2.46%1.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)376,436.45
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)135,925.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)240,510.59
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)75,287.2947,054.5628,232.73
Cash Retained (M)240,510.59240,510.59240,510.59
(-) Cash Required (M)-75,287.29-47,054.56-28,232.73
(=) Excess Retained (M)165,223.30193,456.03212,277.86
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)10,320.0010,320.0010,320.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share16.0118.7520.57
LTM Dividend per Share13.1713.1713.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share16.0118.7520.57
(=) Adjusted Dividend29.1831.9233.74
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate1.39%2.39%3.39%
Fair Value$553.04$751.28$1,041.38
Upside / Downside146.89%235.39%364.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)376,436.45385,425.96394,630.16404,054.15413,703.19423,582.66436,290.14
Payout Ratio36.11%46.89%57.67%68.44%79.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)135,925.86180,714.15227,564.06276,548.53327,742.77381,224.40403,568.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate1.39%2.39%3.39%
Year 1 PV (M)167,652.98169,306.56170,960.14
Year 2 PV (M)195,858.28199,740.87203,661.57
Year 3 PV (M)220,815.09227,413.50234,142.07
Year 4 PV (M)242,778.17252,498.99262,508.84
Year 5 PV (M)261,984.95275,162.24288,864.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,419,817.987,793,019.408,181,089.01
Equity Value (M)8,508,907.458,917,141.579,341,226.15
Shares Outstanding (M)10,320.0010,320.0010,320.00
Fair Value$824.51$864.06$905.16
Upside / Downside268.08%285.74%304.09%

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