Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Thurgauer Kantonalbank (TKBP.SW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$369.12 - $809.02$530.20
Multi-Stage$803.38 - $884.76$843.28
Blended Fair Value$686.74
Current Price$153.00
Upside348.85%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.32%4.70%4.834.564.544.384.114.104.034.024.003.99
YoY Growth--5.91%0.51%3.49%6.63%0.23%1.71%0.31%0.38%0.35%30.88%
Dividend Yield--3.80%3.81%3.81%4.11%3.93%3.76%3.93%3.95%4.52%5.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)317.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)36.47
(=) Cash Retained (M)280.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)63.4739.6723.80
Cash Retained (M)280.89280.89280.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-63.47-39.67-23.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)217.42241.22257.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)16.0016.0016.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share13.5915.0816.07
LTM Dividend per Share2.282.282.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share13.5915.0816.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend15.8717.3618.35
WACC / Discount Rate5.03%5.03%5.03%
Growth Rate0.70%1.70%2.70%
Fair Value$369.12$530.20$809.02
Upside / Downside141.25%246.54%428.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)317.36322.77328.27333.86339.54345.33355.69
Payout Ratio11.49%27.19%42.89%58.60%74.30%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)36.4787.77140.81195.63252.28310.80329.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.03%5.03%5.03%
Growth Rate0.70%1.70%2.70%
Year 1 PV (M)82.7483.5684.39
Year 2 PV (M)125.14127.64130.16
Year 3 PV (M)163.90168.83173.86
Year 4 PV (M)199.26207.29215.56
Year 5 PV (M)231.42243.14255.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,051.6812,662.0513,296.91
Equity Value (M)12,854.1313,492.5114,156.21
Shares Outstanding (M)16.0016.0016.00
Fair Value$803.38$843.28$884.76
Upside / Downside425.09%451.16%478.28%

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