DDM Analysis: TECK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$20.43 - $30.39	$25.18
Multi-Stage	$34.43 - $37.86	$36.11
Blended Fair Value	$30.65
Current Price	$61.09
Upside	-49.83%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	35.87%	-0.08%	1.03	0.53	1.06	0.21	0.21	0.22	0.34	0.69	0.12	0.75
YoY Growth	-	-	93.96%	-50.19%	401.89%	0.00%	-4.50%	-35.47%	-50.00%	493.10%	-84.49%	-27.80%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.96%	0.85%	2.15%	0.42%	0.88%	2.08%	1.09%	2.09%	0.40%	7.54%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,256.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	248.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,008.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	251.20	157.00	94.20
Cash Retained (M)	1,008.00	1,008.00	1,008.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-251.20	-157.00	-94.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)	756.80	851.00	913.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	501.08	501.08	501.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.51	1.70	1.82
LTM Dividend per Share	0.49	0.49	0.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.51	1.70	1.82
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.01	2.19	2.32
WACC / Discount Rate	8.20%	8.20%	8.20%
Growth Rate	-1.47%	-0.47%	0.53%
Fair Value	$20.43	$25.18	$30.39
Upside / Downside	-66.55%	-58.78%	-50.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,256.00	1,250.09	1,244.20	1,238.34	1,232.51	1,226.71	1,263.51
Payout Ratio	19.75%	33.80%	47.85%	61.90%	75.95%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	248.00	422.48	595.31	766.51	936.08	1,104.04	1,168.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.20%	8.20%	8.20%
Growth Rate	-1.47%	-0.47%	0.53%
Year 1 PV (M)	386.55	390.47	394.39
Year 2 PV (M)	498.35	508.52	518.79
Year 3 PV (M)	587.09	605.14	623.57
Year 4 PV (M)	655.98	683.02	710.89
Year 5 PV (M)	707.88	744.54	782.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)	14,416.28	15,162.85	15,940.04
Equity Value (M)	17,252.12	18,094.54	18,970.38
Shares Outstanding (M)	501.08	501.08	501.08
Fair Value	$34.43	$36.11	$37.86
Upside / Downside	-43.64%	-40.89%	-38.03%

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Teck Resources Limited (TECK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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