Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Tipco Asphalt Public Company Limited (TASCO-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.69 - $7.94$6.82
Multi-Stage$17.97 - $19.83$18.88
Blended Fair Value$12.85
Current Price$14.60
Upside-12.00%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.40%26.27%0.991.231.041.531.380.690.880.880.680.58
YoY Growth---20.01%19.09%-32.27%10.78%99.91%-21.44%0.41%29.24%17.18%503.67%
Dividend Yield--6.96%7.77%5.29%9.22%6.68%4.02%5.50%5.06%2.63%2.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,600.41
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,422.37
(=) Cash Retained (M)178.04
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)320.08200.05120.03
Cash Retained (M)178.04178.04178.04
(-) Cash Required (M)-320.08-200.05-120.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)-142.04-22.0158.01
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,597.761,597.761,597.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.09-0.010.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.890.890.89
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.09-0.010.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.800.880.93
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-6.80%-5.80%-4.80%
Fair Value$5.69$6.82$7.94
Upside / Downside-61.00%-53.32%-45.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,600.411,507.611,420.181,337.831,260.251,187.171,222.79
Payout Ratio88.88%89.10%89.33%89.55%89.78%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,422.371,343.281,268.581,198.031,131.391,068.451,131.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-6.80%-5.80%-4.80%
Year 1 PV (M)1,250.071,263.481,276.89
Year 2 PV (M)1,098.631,122.331,146.29
Year 3 PV (M)965.53996.951,029.04
Year 4 PV (M)848.56885.56923.77
Year 5 PV (M)745.74786.62829.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)23,808.0825,113.0326,474.57
Equity Value (M)28,716.6130,167.9731,679.83
Shares Outstanding (M)1,597.761,597.761,597.76
Fair Value$17.97$18.88$19.83
Upside / Downside23.10%29.32%35.81%

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