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Definitive Analysis

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Sygnia Limited (SYG.JO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - ConglomeratesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$84.83 - $183.24$121.21
Multi-Stage$67.03 - $72.92$69.92
Blended Fair Value$95.57
Current Price$23.21
Upside311.74%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS29.78%38.99%2.102.121.561.180.690.570.570.430.230.25
YoY Growth---1.15%36.11%31.53%72.02%20.96%0.05%31.40%92.48%-10.06%220.98%
Dividend Yield--10.23%11.80%9.46%6.91%4.78%6.03%6.32%4.88%1.56%1.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)680.83
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)581.23
(=) Cash Retained (M)99.59
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)136.1785.1051.06
Cash Retained (M)99.5999.5999.59
(-) Cash Required (M)-136.17-85.10-51.06
(=) Excess Retained (M)-36.5714.4948.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)153.98153.98153.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.240.090.32
LTM Dividend per Share3.773.773.77
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.240.090.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.543.874.09
WACC / Discount Rate9.90%9.90%9.90%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$84.83$121.21$183.24
Upside / Downside265.47%422.22%689.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)680.83725.08772.21822.40875.86932.79960.77
Payout Ratio85.37%86.30%87.22%88.15%89.07%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)581.23625.72673.54724.94780.17839.51888.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.90%9.90%9.90%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)564.01569.36574.71
Year 2 PV (M)547.24557.67568.19
Year 3 PV (M)530.91546.15561.68
Year 4 PV (M)515.01534.82555.19
Year 5 PV (M)499.53523.66548.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,664.488,034.688,419.05
Equity Value (M)10,321.1910,766.3311,227.52
Shares Outstanding (M)153.98153.98153.98
Fair Value$67.03$69.92$72.92
Upside / Downside188.80%201.26%214.16%

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