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Definitive Analysis

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Polyplex (Thailand) Public Company Limited (PTL-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.58 - $7.07$5.74
Multi-Stage$10.62 - $11.67$11.14
Blended Fair Value$8.44
Current Price$9.95
Upside-15.21%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-10.81%0.00%0.390.320.911.430.830.690.680.550.000.09
YoY Growth--21.88%-64.84%-36.36%72.29%20.12%1.32%24.58%0.00%-100.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.92%2.71%6.59%6.33%3.19%4.16%4.49%3.94%0.00%0.93%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)446.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)362.87
(=) Cash Retained (M)83.26
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)89.2355.7733.46
Cash Retained (M)83.2683.2683.26
(-) Cash Required (M)-89.23-55.77-33.46
(=) Excess Retained (M)-5.9727.4949.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)900.00900.00900.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.030.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.400.400.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.030.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.400.430.46
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$4.58$5.74$7.07
Upside / Downside-53.97%-42.35%-28.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)446.13441.67437.26432.88428.55424.27437.00
Payout Ratio81.34%83.07%84.80%86.53%88.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)362.87366.90370.80374.60378.27381.84404.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)341.07344.55348.03
Year 2 PV (M)320.43327.01333.65
Year 3 PV (M)300.92310.23319.73
Year 4 PV (M)282.49294.19306.26
Year 5 PV (M)265.08278.88293.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,049.268,468.408,904.82
Equity Value (M)9,559.2410,023.2610,505.74
Shares Outstanding (M)900.00900.00900.00
Fair Value$10.62$11.14$11.67
Upside / Downside6.75%11.93%17.32%

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