Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Macfarlane Group PLC (MACF.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.25 - $24.36$9.25
Multi-Stage$3.25 - $3.56$3.40
Blended Fair Value$6.33
Current Price$1.18
Upside436.08%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.28%11.78%0.040.030.030.030.010.020.020.020.010.01
YoY Growth--4.85%7.49%18.84%288.51%-70.05%8.92%18.68%21.03%12.61%10.91%
Dividend Yield--3.33%2.93%3.07%2.06%0.79%2.13%2.96%2.29%2.42%2.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)26.69
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11.55
(=) Cash Retained (M)15.15
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5.343.342.00
Cash Retained (M)15.1515.1515.15
(-) Cash Required (M)-5.34-3.34-2.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)9.8111.8113.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)159.99159.99159.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.070.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.070.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.130.150.15
WACC / Discount Rate8.18%8.18%8.18%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$5.25$9.25$24.36
Upside / Downside345.11%683.82%1,964.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)26.6928.4330.2832.2434.3436.5737.67
Payout Ratio43.25%52.60%61.95%71.30%80.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11.5514.9518.7622.9927.7032.9134.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.18%8.18%8.18%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)13.6913.8213.95
Year 2 PV (M)15.7316.0316.33
Year 3 PV (M)17.6518.1618.68
Year 4 PV (M)19.4720.2220.99
Year 5 PV (M)21.1922.2123.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)432.99453.90475.61
Equity Value (M)520.72544.35568.84
Shares Outstanding (M)159.99159.99159.99
Fair Value$3.25$3.40$3.56
Upside / Downside175.82%188.33%201.31%

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