Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Lotus's Retail Growth Freehold and Leasehold Property Fund (LPF.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - RetailSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.33 - $11.01$9.07
Multi-Stage$16.78 - $18.44$17.60
Blended Fair Value$13.33
Current Price$10.70
Upside24.61%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.72%2.30%0.870.800.680.770.900.900.860.860.810.75
YoY Growth--8.66%17.82%-11.65%-15.11%0.46%4.97%-0.70%6.08%8.83%8.10%
Dividend Yield--6.94%6.01%4.88%4.86%4.50%4.37%4.54%5.14%4.99%5.66%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,041.56
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,705.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)336.32
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)408.31255.19153.12
Cash Retained (M)336.32336.32336.32
(-) Cash Required (M)-408.31-255.19-153.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)-71.9981.12183.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,337.282,337.282,337.28
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.030.030.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.730.730.73
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.030.030.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.700.760.81
WACC / Discount Rate6.81%6.81%6.81%
Growth Rate-2.49%-1.49%-0.49%
Fair Value$7.33$9.07$11.01
Upside / Downside-31.53%-15.22%2.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,041.562,011.081,981.051,951.471,922.331,893.621,950.43
Payout Ratio83.53%84.82%86.12%87.41%88.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,705.241,705.821,706.001,705.791,705.211,704.261,804.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.81%6.81%6.81%
Growth Rate-2.49%-1.49%-0.49%
Year 1 PV (M)1,580.891,597.111,613.32
Year 2 PV (M)1,465.271,495.481,526.00
Year 3 PV (M)1,357.801,400.011,443.08
Year 4 PV (M)1,257.941,310.341,364.36
Year 5 PV (M)1,165.171,226.151,289.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)32,402.7134,098.7135,864.98
Equity Value (M)39,229.7841,127.7943,101.41
Shares Outstanding (M)2,337.282,337.282,337.28
Fair Value$16.78$17.60$18.44
Upside / Downside56.86%64.45%72.34%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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