Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Deutsche Lufthansa AG (LHA.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Airlines, Airports & Air ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.75 - $19.69$15.97
Multi-Stage$24.31 - $26.75$25.50
Blended Fair Value$20.74
Current Price$7.21
Upside187.64%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.48%5.30%0.310.020.010.020.020.320.290.190.190.01
YoY Growth--1,388.00%212.50%-57.89%-9.52%-94.49%9.17%50.43%-0.43%1,564.29%-93.69%
Dividend Yield--4.63%0.29%0.07%0.22%0.22%5.21%2.08%1.05%1.79%0.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,643.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)369.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,274.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)328.60205.38123.23
Cash Retained (M)1,274.001,274.001,274.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-328.60-205.38-123.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)945.401,068.631,150.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,197.951,197.951,197.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.790.890.96
LTM Dividend per Share0.310.310.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.790.890.96
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.101.201.27
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate-1.37%-0.37%0.63%
Fair Value$12.75$15.97$19.69
Upside / Downside76.89%121.54%173.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,643.001,636.881,630.781,624.701,618.651,612.621,660.99
Payout Ratio22.46%35.97%49.48%62.98%76.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)369.00588.74806.831,023.301,238.131,451.351,536.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate-1.37%-0.37%0.63%
Year 1 PV (M)544.13549.64555.16
Year 2 PV (M)689.19703.24717.43
Year 3 PV (M)807.86832.69858.01
Year 4 PV (M)903.41940.61978.94
Year 5 PV (M)978.741,029.381,082.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)25,194.4826,497.9027,854.72
Equity Value (M)29,117.8130,553.4532,046.35
Shares Outstanding (M)1,197.951,197.951,197.95
Fair Value$24.31$25.50$26.75
Upside / Downside237.12%253.74%271.03%

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