Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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ICL Group Ltd (ICL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural InputsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.21 - $5.27$4.13
Multi-Stage$6.93 - $7.62$7.27
Blended Fair Value$5.70
Current Price$6.22
Upside-8.38%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.67%-11.43%0.190.370.900.210.090.210.190.180.130.27
YoY Growth---47.05%-59.35%322.46%133.90%-56.78%13.28%1.69%46.30%-53.31%-58.93%
Dividend Yield--3.42%6.90%13.28%1.77%1.57%6.89%3.50%4.38%2.95%6.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)369.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)230.68
(=) Cash Retained (M)138.32
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)73.8046.1327.68
Cash Retained (M)138.32138.32138.32
(-) Cash Required (M)-73.80-46.13-27.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)64.5292.19110.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,291.191,291.191,291.19
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.070.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.070.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.230.250.26
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate-0.86%0.14%1.14%
Fair Value$3.21$4.13$5.27
Upside / Downside-48.46%-33.67%-15.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)369.00369.50370.00370.50371.00371.50382.65
Payout Ratio62.52%68.01%73.51%79.01%84.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)230.68251.31271.99292.72313.51334.35353.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate-0.86%0.14%1.14%
Year 1 PV (M)234.26236.62238.99
Year 2 PV (M)236.34241.13245.97
Year 3 PV (M)237.11244.35251.75
Year 4 PV (M)236.72246.42256.41
Year 5 PV (M)235.34247.45260.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,773.638,173.698,590.06
Equity Value (M)8,953.409,389.679,843.23
Shares Outstanding (M)1,291.191,291.191,291.19
Fair Value$6.93$7.27$7.62
Upside / Downside11.48%16.91%22.56%

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