Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

HELLA GmbH & Co. KGaA (HLE.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18.25 - $25.84$21.99
Multi-Stage$27.59 - $30.27$28.90
Blended Fair Value$25.45
Current Price$87.10
Upside-70.78%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.730.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.84%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)311.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)86.79
(=) Cash Retained (M)224.31
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)62.2238.8923.33
Cash Retained (M)224.31224.31224.31
(-) Cash Required (M)-62.22-38.89-23.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)162.09185.42200.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)111.48111.48111.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.451.661.80
LTM Dividend per Share0.780.780.78
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.451.661.80
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.232.442.58
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$18.25$21.99$25.84
Upside / Downside-79.05%-74.75%-70.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)311.10307.99304.91301.86298.84295.85304.73
Payout Ratio27.90%40.32%52.74%65.16%77.58%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)86.79124.17160.80196.69231.84266.27281.87

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)111.75112.89114.03
Year 2 PV (M)130.25132.92135.62
Year 3 PV (M)143.38147.81152.34
Year 4 PV (M)152.10158.40164.90
Year 5 PV (M)157.22165.40173.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,380.802,504.772,633.86
Equity Value (M)3,075.493,222.203,374.67
Shares Outstanding (M)111.48111.48111.48
Fair Value$27.59$28.90$30.27
Upside / Downside-68.33%-66.82%-65.25%

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