Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Gold Road Resources Limited (GOR.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: GoldSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.68 - $6.24$4.79
Multi-Stage$2.90 - $3.17$3.03
Blended Fair Value$3.91
Current Price$3.27
Upside19.64%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.010.010.010.020.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---13.45%22.30%-25.28%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.60%0.73%0.69%1.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)309.65
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)37.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)272.14
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)61.9338.7123.22
Cash Retained (M)272.14272.14272.14
(-) Cash Required (M)-61.93-38.71-23.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)210.20233.43248.91
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,087.011,087.011,087.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.210.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.210.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.230.250.26
WACC / Discount Rate12.04%12.04%12.04%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$3.68$4.79$6.24
Upside / Downside12.43%46.54%90.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)309.65329.78351.22374.05398.36424.25436.98
Payout Ratio12.12%27.69%43.27%58.85%74.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)37.5291.33151.97220.11296.47381.83404.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate12.04%12.04%12.04%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)80.7581.5182.28
Year 2 PV (M)118.80121.06123.35
Year 3 PV (M)152.14156.50160.95
Year 4 PV (M)181.18188.14195.31
Year 5 PV (M)206.31216.27226.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,415.982,532.672,653.83
Equity Value (M)3,155.153,296.173,442.34
Shares Outstanding (M)1,087.011,087.011,087.01
Fair Value$2.90$3.03$3.17
Upside / Downside-11.24%-7.27%-3.16%

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