DDM Analysis: GFRD.L

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$3.13 - $4.39	$3.76
Multi-Stage	$6.31 - $6.92	$6.61
Blended Fair Value	$5.18
Current Price	$4.20
Upside	23.38%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	-14.77%	-9.84%	0.17	0.23	0.09	0.06	0.01	0.37	0.76	0.72	0.69	0.56
YoY Growth	-	-	-27.69%	152.08%	52.38%	384.62%	-96.66%	-51.31%	5.27%	4.26%	22.77%	20.28%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.96%	9.42%	4.68%	3.52%	0.88%	31.32%	12.07%	8.25%	6.62%	6.86%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	54.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	39.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)	15.50

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	10.96	6.85	4.11
Cash Retained (M)	15.50	15.50	15.50
(-) Cash Required (M)	-10.96	-6.85	-4.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)	4.54	8.65	11.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	105.24	105.24	105.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.04	0.08	0.11
LTM Dividend per Share	0.37	0.37	0.37
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.04	0.08	0.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.42	0.46	0.48
WACC / Discount Rate	8.51%	8.51%	8.51%
Growth Rate	-4.23%	-3.23%	-2.23%
Fair Value	$3.13	$3.76	$4.39
Upside / Downside	-25.43%	-10.57%	4.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	54.80	53.03	51.32	49.67	48.07	46.52	47.91
Payout Ratio	71.72%	75.37%	79.03%	82.69%	86.34%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	39.30	39.97	40.56	41.07	41.50	41.86	44.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.51%	8.51%	8.51%
Growth Rate	-4.23%	-3.23%	-2.23%
Year 1 PV (M)	36.46	36.84	37.22
Year 2 PV (M)	33.74	34.45	35.16
Year 3 PV (M)	31.15	32.14	33.15
Year 4 PV (M)	28.71	29.93	31.19
Year 5 PV (M)	26.42	27.82	29.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)	507.21	534.25	562.43
Equity Value (M)	663.68	695.42	728.43
Shares Outstanding (M)	105.24	105.24	105.24
Fair Value	$6.31	$6.61	$6.92
Upside / Downside	50.15%	57.33%	64.79%

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Galliford Try Holdings PLC (GFRD.L)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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